Stakeholders from over 200 countries have gathered in Baku, Azerbaijan for this year’s United Nations climate change conference, setting the stage for the coming decade as we work toward the goals of the Paris Agreement.
On Transport Day, the Accelerating to Zero Coalition released the second edition of its COP Progress Update, as commissioned by the Breakthrough Agenda, offering a stocktake on our global progress towards an accelerated zero-emission vehicle (ZEV) transition. The global push towards a sustainable future hinges on the decarbonization of the road transport sector.
The Road to Zero
Driven by an accelerating shift towards electric vehicles, the road transportation sector is undergoing a profound transformation. Governments, automakers, truck manufacturers, and fleet owners and operators are all paving the way for a zero-emission future.
Major markets like Canada, the European Union, the United Kingdom, and the United States are enacting strong policies to spur consumer demand. In 2024, we’ve seen continued ZEV sales growth – with EV sales projected to reach a record 16.7 million units, up from 13.9 million in 2023.
The ZEV Declaration, and other similar platforms, offer a framework for countries to align behind a single phase-out target for light-duty vehicles, establishing a shared vision to catalyze a swift industry-wide shift. As of the publication of this report, 54 countries, representing 30% of global LDV sales, have adopted binding policies or set voluntary commitments to achieve 100% ZEV sales on a Paris-aligned target.
This year has not been without challenge though, with 2024 being nicknamed the “year of elections,” many countries now face uncertainty on proposed or adopted policies, which could slow EV adoption in certain regions.
ZEV Progress
The Progress Update also measures how current adopted and proposed ZEV policies align with the emissions reduction needed to achieve Paris Agreement targets by 2050 and limit warming to below 2° C – we’re about halfway there.
Adopted policies, like ZEV regulations and greenhouse gas standards, avoid nearly 23 gigatons of CO2 between 2024 and 2050, and proposed policies, if implemented, would avoid an additional 13. With further urgent action, including additional ZEV policies and commitments by countries who have not yet set targets, the road transport sector may yet reach our reductions target by 2050.
Electrifying the Road Ahead
Governments worldwide play a vital role in accelerating ZEV adoption by setting high-level targets and adopting binding regulations. Emerging market countries are becoming a major force in the global EV market, with rapidly growing sales driven by government support, fuel price volatility, and increasing environmental awareness. Both signatories to the ZEV Declaration, India’s EV sales grew by over 200% in 2023 and Türkiye witnessed a staggering 805% growth between 2022 and 2023.
Major automakers are spearheading a global shift towards zero-emission light-duty vehicles, investing heavily in research, production, and new markets. BYD, a ZEV Declaration signatory, saw rapid expansion in 2023, surpassing 3 million electric vehicles sold. Their focus on emerging markets was also evident, with models now available in 70 countries across six continents.
Behind the scenes, a network of international initiatives is dedicated to accelerating progress. These initiatives are making significant strides in establishing coordinated targets, developing effective implementation strategies, and providing crucial support to their members. The COP29 Progress Update explores seven different programs and their successes over the last year.
